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皇冠信用网开户:Another busy week for central banks

皇冠信用网开户:Another busy week for central banks

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The Bank of England is expected to raise its interest rate by 50 to 75 bps in December, bringing it to 3.50% to 3.75% by the end of this year.. — AP

IT was another busy week for major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Bank Negara.

These banks have the same message for the public; their fight against inflation is not over yet.

As expected, the Fed delivered the fourth aggressive rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) to cool inflation, which stood at 8.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in September, which is a 40-year high.

The fed funds rate now is in a range of 3.75% to 4%, the same level prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008.

Looking at some of the key macro data, there are signs that inflation could soon ease.

For example, the monthly nonfarm employment growth has fallen from 537,000 in July to 263,000 in September.

On average, private-sector wages and salaries grew 5.2% annually between July and September, still historically high but down from 5.7% the previous quarter.

Retail petrol prices have also eased, after peaking at US$5 (RM23.74) per gallon in June to around US$3.70 (RM17.57) per gallon in October.

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With the higher interest rates now, the biggest risk is pushing the economy into a recession. The Fed chair has signalled that the magnitude of future rate hikes will be smaller, but interest rates will be higher than the current level.

A lot to be done

While there is a lot of work to be done with a possibly higher “terminal” interest rate, recession risks are rising. That is the price the Fed is prepared to pay to get inflation under control.

We believe the rate hike from December onwards will be modest. We are looking at a 50-bps hike and followed by 25 bps in January. That should see the Fed settle its policy rate at 4.50% to 4.75%.

The BoE also adjusted the interest rates by making a 75-bps rate hike. This will be the largest rate hike since 1989 to address cost-of-living issues and inflation, which had rebounded back to a 40-year high in September of 10.1% y-o-y.

The central bank also noted a lower interest rate peak, in contrast with the Fed’s stance, and the possibility of a more prolonged recession which could last for two years, longer than during the GFC in 2008.

Moving forward, we expect the BoE to raise its interest rate by 50 to 75 bps in December, bringing it to 3.50% to 3.75% by the end of this year.

Moving on to Australia, the RBA cash rate has been raised by 25 bps to 2.85%. This is in response to the headline inflation that increased from 6.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in the second quarter of 2022 (2Q22) to 7.3% q-o-q in 3Q22.

The statement made by RBA is similar to that in October, where the incoming data will determine future interest rate adjustments.

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